MLB Home Run Picks
The best home run plays on today, ranked by V12’s projected HR probability and compared to the FanDuel line — with a value flag where V12 likes the bat more than the book.
How to use the home run picks
V12 HR vs Book. “V12 HR” is V12’s own model probability that the hitter homers; “Book” is FanDuel’s implied odds. Sportsbook HR prices carry heavy vig, so when V12’s number is higher than the book’s (the value flag), the model likes that bat more than the market — often a lower-owned DFS power play too.
These come from the best hitting spots. We pull candidates from the day’s highest-total games — hitter-friendly parks, weak pitching, good weather — where home runs are most likely.
For DFS and props. A high HR probability means ceiling: in DFS a home run is the single biggest scoring play, and these are the same bats you’d target in a stack. Verify the lineup is confirmed before you lock.