MLB Home Run Picks
The best home run plays on September 19, 2026, ranked by V12’s projected HR probability and compared to the FanDuel line — with a value flag where V12 likes the bat more than the book.
From the day’s 6best hitting environments · “V12 HR” = model probability of a home run; “Book” = FanDuel implied · refreshes through the day
How to use the home run picks
V12 HR vs Book. “V12 HR” is V12’s own model probability that the hitter homers; “Book” is FanDuel’s implied odds. Sportsbook HR prices carry heavy vig, so when V12’s number is higher than the book’s (the value flag), the model likes that bat more than the market — often a lower-owned DFS power play too.
These come from the best hitting spots. We pull candidates from the day’s highest-total games — hitter-friendly parks, weak pitching, good weather — where home runs are most likely.
For DFS and props. A high HR probability means ceiling: in DFS a home run is the single biggest scoring play, and these are the same bats you’d target in a stack. Verify the lineup is confirmed before you lock.